BEIJING, December 4 (TMTPost)— A market analysis and advisory services provider expected global smartphone market will further recover from a lackluster trend in the last quarter of 2023, driven by resurgence of the Chinese market.

Credit：Visual China

Worldwide smartphone shipments will rise 7.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of this year,according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). That is a significant recovery compared with a 0.1% YoY decline in shipments in the previous quarter. The improved forecast came after the third quarter without further inventory buildup, which has led some channels and major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to ramp up their business plans for the months ahead. Despite the strong rebound in the last quarter, global shipments in the year of 2023 is expected to fall 3.5% from last year to 1.16 billion units, which is still better than the previous forecast as IDC foretasted a 4.7% drop earlier this year. IDC also expected the recovery will last into 2024 with a growth of 3.8%, and the coming five years will see a compound annual growth of 1.4% as the market will just have low single-digit growth for the rest years.

IDC highlighted China as the market with most evident improvement in sentiment. "While the rate of recovery varies across regions, the changed sentiment is most apparent in China, where consumers are finally coming out of their shells and spending on devices, fueled by the excitement from Huawei's resurgence, which is in turn expected to have a positive impact on the larger Android market in the long-term,” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. The director commented that it feels safe to say “the worst behind us”.

Previous statistics have showcased ongoing recovery of Chinese market in the current quarter. In the first four weeks of October, smartphone sales in China grew on average 11% year-over-year (YoY), according to the global market research firm Counterpoint Research. Whether on YoY or more short-term week-over-week (WoW) basis, the numbers are suggesting a recovery, and there’s some momentum building to be sure, observes Mengmeng Zhang, senior analyst for China at Counterpoint. The firm noted WoW figures heading into Singles’ Day sales period this month highlight stronger momentum than 2022.

As the standout brand in these four weeks, Huawei accounted for the bulk of net adds share over the period, according to another market reserach firm Counerpoint. Huawei’s sales surged 83% YoY in October based on full-month preliminary figures, while Xiaomi and Honor posted the YoY increase of 33% and 10%, respectively, compared with a 12% decline of other key vendors. “The clear standout in October has been Huawei with its turnaround on the back of its Mate 60 series devices.  Growth has been stellar with its new launch marketing and strong media coverage around its ‘Made in China’ chipset,” notes Counterpoint China analyst Archie Zhang. “Demand continues to be high double-digits and we’re also seeing a halo effect, with other models from the vendor performing well.”

Huawei has made a brilliant comeback through its Mate 60 series, While Huawei didn’t confirm whether the phone supports the 5G network, Chinese media outlets said online tests proved Mate 60 Pro can deliver the internet speed of 5G. Multiple reports attributed Mate 60’s 5G connectivity to Kirin 9000s chipset.Even though Huawei didn’t officially released the model, the low-profile presale turned out such a success that the first batch of the phone sold out within hours.

Counterpoint estimated Huawei has sold 1.6 million Mate 60 Pro handsets in six weeks, and more than 400,000 units out of the sales were sold in the two weeks when Apple launched its latest mobile iPhone 15 on mainland China. In the week ended October 8, or the 40th week of the year, Huawei took the first place with a 19.4% of market share by sales in China, according to BCI, a Chinese consulting firm focusing on research in the communications industry.

Smartphone sales in China were mainly driven by high double-digit growth in Android sales led by Huawei, Xiaomi and Honor devices, while Apple’s iPhone sales recorded a negative YoY growth since the iPhone 15 launched, resulting in Huawei’s dethroning as the market leader in China, according to a report from Jefferies analysts on October 16. The analysts expected weak demand in China would eventually lead to lower-than expected global shipments of iPhone 15 this year, and the iPhone will lose to Huawei next year.

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