Credit: VCG

5G has come to represent a milestone in China's transformation from follower to neck-and-neck competitor and now lead runner in the race to develop telecommunications technology. Thanks to all-round publicity, it has already become a household name. Observing the 5G field at this current point, it is clear that this technology - not to be overestimated in the short term, but surely not to be underestimated in the long run – is riding on a tide of great momentum, sweeping all forward with it and delivering under expectations from all sides. From the consumer side alone, it has not only become one of the criteria for evaluating a manufacturer's technical capabilities, but a core issue at the core of customer ambivalence.

However, the industry should note that playing on asymmetric information under heavy marketing of the various advantages of 5G, yet at the same time not opening up on the reality of current 5G infrastructure, will only create a Barmecide feast that will hinder the healthy development of the entire industry.

5G tech: a criterion of a manufacturer's capabilities

Taking an overview of the smart phone industry, one sees how 5G technology has become an important criterion against which consumers measure a manufacturer's capabilities. Present-day consumers are already under the mindset that any company appearing behind the eight-ball in launching 5G products is an out-of-touch laggard outside the cutting edge of innovation. And it is precisely because of this that manufacturers are now in a fight to influence the minds of consumers and build an image of innovation, staging a farce in which all compete to announce the 'first' 5G something – the first to implement 5G technology in its phones, the first to set up 5G-based microblogging, the first to enable 5G browsing, or 5G video calls, and so on.

This is not to deny that such results should be attributed to a manufacturers' own R&D and/or hard work; nevertheless, the announcements of these so-called firsts one after another make such PR transparent and impact negatively on its credibility.

The farce was on stage again on 16 July.

On 16 July, a National Business Daily reporter found that seven 5G cell phones had received the 3C certificate (China Compulsory Certification) on the official website of the China Quality Certification Center. Among them, there were four Huawei models and one each for OnePlus, ZTE and vivo.

It was this report, though, that provoked responses from its unmentioned parties, OPPO and Xiaomi. "Our certificate has been received, though not yet made public," stated OPPO, who then proceeded to publish its 3C certificate and announce that the 5G version of OPPO's Reno had officially received China's 5G telecommunications terminal equipment Network Access License, thus showing that the phone maker had obtained all three certificates for its 5G phone - 3C, Network Access License and SRRC. And from Xiaomi: "Xiaomi's 5G phone will apply for testing next week. The current 3C certification only assesses 2G, 3G and 4G functions, with no 5G test items added."

From this incident one can see just how sensitive manufacturers are when it comes to 5G products, and how frightened they have become of being labeled a laggard in the adoption of 5G technology. A more prominent example was the response of Meizu's Huang Zhang (a.k.a. J. Wong) to a question posted in its online community on when Meizu's 5G cell phone would be released. "Don't rush into 5G," he replied. "The first 5G cell phones are bulky and heavy, and eat up more battery than other phones even when in 4G mode. We will launch our 5G cell phone next year, but it is my personal opinion that it will be another year before 5G phones can be considered mature by consumer standards." However, these words from Huang Zhang only attracted scorn from countless consumers and media outlets, who took it as an excuse on Meizu's side for not having yet launched its own 5G version.

5G: a core criterion in switching phones

Yet, in all fairness, were Huang Zhang's comments on 5G phones really so wrong? In fact, when it comes to the current state of 5G infrastructure, to call it either immature or not up to the standards of commercial requirements would represent the most pertinent of evaluations.

Actual feedback from participants in 5G user experience programs shows that while consumers are most impressed by the increase in download speed, the available range of 5G services still remains limited. Even in big metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai, 5G coverage is still far below the standards required of commercial use. Currently, Beijing's 5G network still operates under the coverage of hotspots and is yet to be rolled out across all key areas.

Director of China Mobile Research Institute Zhang Tongxu revealed at the 2019 (Seventh) IMT-2020 (5G) Summit: "By end of the year, China Mobile will reach a scale of 50,000 5G base stations in 50 cities." While according to a research report from CSC Financial, a predicted number of 150,000 5G base stations will be built across China in 2019. Sustaining a smooth 5G experience under this level of base station coverage would be quite a feat. For comparison, by 2018, China Mobile's 4G base stations totaled 2.41 million, while those of China Telecom and China Unicom numbered 1.38 million and 0.99 million respectively.

It is clear there is still a long way to go when it comes to the building of 5G base stations, which will lead to a number of premature births of 5G-version phones. After all, 5G products are distinct from those of the 3G and 4G eras, which were developed in the wake of network infrastructure development, not preceding it. Such premature 5G models might well attract and be suited only to such geek early adopters of first-tier cities.

But faced with this apparent reality, many consumers remain unmoved, accepting the lines of the 'truth-tellers' that such companies are simply making excuses in order to cover up their own incompetence. This is the fantasy of the present-day consumer market.

Furthermore, this mania for 5G technology demonstrated by consumers has not only made manufacturers startle at the slightest hint of any hurdle; it is also coming back to haunt itself – 5G is now becoming the core criterion of a consumers' ambivalence in the decision over whether or not to switch phones.

At this grand intersection point between the eras of 4G and 5G, it becomes an awkward moment for those looking to invest in a phone for the next few years. After all, they face the reality that 5G cell phones will be entering the market in the second half of this year no matter what; if they invest their money in another 4G product, by next year it may already be out of date. For this very reason, even users who have long outdated their current phone models are still holding out for the launch of 5G.

Realistically speaking, any 5G phone that precedes the construction of its required infrastructure will not bring substantial improvement to the consumer experience in the short term. Despite a relatively hefty price tag, most of these 5G phones will serve only as fancy, but useless, pieces of décor.

Over-publicity and conflicting information

So here comes the question: why would consumers pay so much attention to 5G phones, to the point that they believe a manufacturer that does not immediately launch a 5G product is a laggard?

Tracing the root of the issue, we find that the current state of the market did not result from any high level of knowledge among consumers either of manufacturers' technical capabilities and the reality surrounding 5G cell phones, or any urgent need for them. In actuality, it was the industry's overhyped promotions on its technology, together with a mix of conflicting information from individual manufacturers, which indulged and led consumers into a frenzy for 5G.

As we can see, current 5G publicity mostly highlights the leap in technology that 5G represents alongside all of its disruptive capabilities. It is indeed true that we are already at a relatively advanced stage in the development of 5G technology, while it will also likely lead us to significant social change. But this revolution will probably not materialize for another three to five years, while current publicity continues to trick much of the public into a false belief of imminent social disruption.

News media have offered consumers a Barmecide feast of going 5G, while failing to provide a full image of its reality, thus obscuring the public view of the actual level of maturity of current 5G technology. This kind of excessive publicity and conflicting information that blankets public perception of 5G has hyped up consumers and convinced manufacturers into the game, however it may be the development of 5G technology itself which ultimately takes the biggest hit.

Once the 5G user experience fails to live up to the hype of all the propaganda and high expectations are flattened, users will be left in a state of 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' that will only serve to interfere in the smooth development of the industry.

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This article was edited by the TMTPOST team. 

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